Oakland County’s pandemic-induced recession is largely in the rearview mirror, and the county’s economy will continue to grow in most areas for years to come, according to annual forecasts from the University of Michigan Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE). It is expected that
According to UM, Oakland County is back to or better than pre-pandemic levels in unemployment, labor force participation, and gross domestic product, but the number of paid employees in the county is still far from a full recovery. It is said that it is far away. .
UM forecasts that the number of jobs should grow by about 1% each year (about 8,000 jobs per year) through 2026, and that the unemployment rate should stabilize at about 3% over the same period. Economists say by the end of 2026, the county’s workforce should be 3.8% larger than it was before the pandemic.
The biggest gainers will be in the private health and social services sector, where economists predict a total of 6,800 jobs will be added over the next three years.
“We look forward to continued growth in the county’s workforce to accommodate continued job growth,” said Jacob, who leads California State University’s economic forecasting team, RSQE. said Gabriel Ehrlich, co-author of the prediction with Burton, Donald Grimes, and Michael McWilliams. .
As for real wage growth, the forecast is “less bullish.” Economists expect average real wages in the county to increase by 0.5% over the next three years, but the growth will be modest, in part due to local inflation that is well above pre-pandemic levels. Still, real wages are expected to rise 4% above 2019 levels in 2026.
According to this projection, Oakland County will always have the highest gross domestic product (the value of all goods and services produced minus the value of goods and services used in production) of all Michigan counties. It is said to be the highest. The county’s total GDP (approximately $127 billion in 2022) was higher than 14 states, and its nominal GDP was the 30th highest among U.S. counties.
The county also performs well compared to 32 other U.S. counties with populations between 950,000 and 1.5 million in 2022. Auckland, with a population of 1.27 million people, is characterized by professional occupation, child poverty, median household income, and educational attainment.
In this year’s forecast, economists also looked at Auckland’s advanced manufacturing sector. A relatively high percentage of employment in the county, at 11.5%, is in advanced manufacturing and related industries.
The county excels in providing service support for advanced manufacturing, with a concentration more than twice the U.S. average, according to the report. One concern, however, is that average wages in Auckland are below the national averages for these industries.
Despite the “relatively optimistic forecast,” Ehrlich and others warn that an aging population poses economic challenges for the county and the state as a whole. They predict that by the end of 2026, residents 65 and older will account for more than 20 percent of the state’s total population, and growth will likely be hampered as more people reach retirement age.
The county is not immune to these challenges. The forecast says the company is outperforming its peers and is “well positioned for the future.” Economists advise that Auckland will increasingly need to compete for talent, particularly in advanced manufacturing.
“We predict that Oakland will be able to resist the workforce decline trend over the next three years,” Ehrlich said. “The resiliency of the county economy will enable continued progress in the years ahead.”
The annual UM forecast for the Oakland County economy was sponsored by the county Economic Development Office.