Darlington Raceway and the Goodyear 400 are the setting for NASCAR’s Nostalgic Weekend this Sunday (3 p.m. ET on FS1). This egg-shaped racetrack is one of the oldest and most unique racetracks on the NASCAR schedule. There have been seven different winners in the past seven Darlington races, with Hendrick Motorsports winning both by a landslide a year ago.
Kyle Larson (+400) is looking to extend his winning streak after the narrowest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history at Kansas. He won this race in the fall and led the spring race with six laps remaining, joining Ross Chastain in turn one. He is followed by Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin (+500) and Martin Truex Jr. (+650). First Ford on the board is Brad Keselowski (+1800) as Ford continues his search for his first win of 2024.
Here’s what I like about Goodyear 400 pre-practice and qualifying (Odds as of Wednesday, May 8th).
Denny Hamlin wins (+500)
Darlington is one of Hamlin’s best tracks throughout his career, taming “The Lady in Black” four times. A big reason for this is Hamlin’s excellent tire management, and this is a race that traditionally requires just that. Two of his three wins this season have come on tracks with high tire wear.
In last fall’s race, Hamlin won both stages and led 177 laps, but was forced to make an unexpected pit stop on the final stage due to a loose wheel. He also finished second in the fall of 2022. Some weeks you have to pick a spot when betting on a favorite, but I’m betting on Hamlin to pick up his fourth win of the season this weekend. I found this number on DraftKings.
William Byron wins (+900)
Caesars Sportsbook is backing Byron’s first +800 number this weekend, and last spring’s winner was arguably Darlington’s best player in the Next Generation era. He owns the highest average finish, average run position, and driver rating of any Cup in his series since 2022.
We expected Byron to be priced similarly to the three popular horses, but the fact that he’s getting additional value with Caesars makes it even more appealing. Now that Byron has cooled down a bit, he has a great chance to once again make his mark at the top, joining Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. I’m also in his top 5 his prop at +125 and I’m also in Caesar’s prop.
Kyle Busch wins (+1800)
Busch, No. 8, had an up-and-down start this season, but has started to improve in recent weeks, finishing fourth at Dover and eighth at Kansas. At Darlington, he is his second best in the overall speed rankings (via ifantasyrace.com) Participated in the race from 2022 and finished in the top 5 in the 2023 spring race. He also led 155 laps in the fall of 2022, although he was with Joe Gibbs Racing.
Bush’s outright price has been raised from +1600 to +1800 on bet365. He is a driver who won’t sit still and with his steady improvement in recent days, he believes victory will come soon.
Noah Gragson Topford (+850)
The No. 9 effort puts Gragson in the top 10 props at Kansas State, and he heads to Darlington riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak. This week, I’m looking at his No. 10 top Ford market, which is probably the most consistent Ford over the past three weeks. Additionally, he has finished in the top five in his last two Cup Series appearances.
Darlington was Gragson’s best track in the Xfinity Series, earning two wins and leading more than 200 laps in a total of seven starts. His worst result in those seven starts was eighth place. His biggest rival in this market is Brad Keselowski, who has finished seventh, fourth and sixth in the past three Darlington races. Still, Gragson needs to be taken seriously and I believe this price is fair at bet365.
Josh Berry Top 10 (+450)
I would like to highlight Berry’s top 10 numbers as he is knocking on his first top 10 door in 2024. He has finished 16th or better three weeks in a row, and Darlington has been a solid course for him in the Xfinity Series.
I’m most interested in this bet because of Berry’s results this season on tracks with high tire wear. His best results to date have been at Bristol (12th) and Richmond (11th), and while Darlington is much more unique, I believe there is value there. I haven’t bet on this number yet, but I believe it’s important to highlight if you’re looking for a long-shot prop. This price is available at bet365. A reasonable expectation for Berry is to finish between 15th and 20th.
Enjoy a memorable weekend and race at Darlington.