Written by Michelle Rose, Maria Martinez, Mark John
Dunkirk, France – The port of Dunkirk in northern France is enjoying an industrial mini-boom thanks to a state-backed investment boost, as President Emmanuel Macron says fighting unemployment is the best way to curb support in far-flung sectors. Belief is indicative – right.
But the economic potential of two new EV “gigafactories” will be undermined by soaring prices for food, heating and other essentials, with Quilliams backing Marine Le Pen’s nationalist party in June’s European elections. -It won’t stop local residents like Mr. Pierron.
Pierron, a construction worker, told Reuters while riding a free local bus, pointing out the ingredients for a ham-cheese baguette roll that he said had tripled in price to 4.40 euros (about $4.75). , cheese, butter, everything has gone up in price.” After three years of high inflation.
“At some point, you have to start thinking about France before everyone else,” he said, adding that Macron was more focused on domestic issues such as affordable housing than pursuing aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia. He insisted that the issue should be prioritized.
Anger over declining living standards is shared by millions of Europeans, and 720 members of the EU parliament, which helps decide trade, environmental and other policies in 27 countries, will vote June 6-9. support for mainstream parties is expected to decline in the vote. block.
Since the last elections in 2019, European economies have faced a cost-of-living crisis caused by the coronavirus shutdown and soaring global inflation, exacerbated by soaring energy prices brought about by the Ukraine war. There is.
As in the United States, where massive state aid to households and businesses has helped avert a deep recession, strong economic indicators have not helped President Joe Biden’s bid for a new term, incumbent powers in Europe will receive little benefit from it.
“It is extraordinary how Europe has managed to stay united through such a huge shock,” said Jeromin Zettelmayer, director of the Bruegel Institute for Economic Research in Brussels.
“But this story of resilience doesn’t make you super optimistic… There’s a sense of relative decline.”
Poverty risk increases
Mainstream political parties currently influential in both the European Parliament and most national governments broadly share a vision of an economy that is open to the world and to trade, as we push for a net-zero green transition.
But this consensus is in jeopardy as more Europeans conclude that the current economic situation is not working for them.
Last year, European output managed to grow by a modest 0.5% as unemployment remained near a historic low of 6.5%. But digging deeper, the data shows that millions of Europeans, including those with jobs, are struggling with depleted finances.
Inflation soared into 2022, reaching nearly 11%, but wages were unable to keep up. As a result, the median disposable income of European households fell by 2% in a year, with low-income groups hit even harder, EU data shows.
This brings the proportion of people ranked by the EU as ‘at risk of poverty or social exclusion’ to 21.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points on 2019 and equivalent to 2.9 million people. This was the first increase in this category in 10 years. Year-on-year decline.
According to an annual survey by German insurance company R+V, the top three concerns of Germans are now economic issues: rising costs of living, high house prices, and cuts to social security due to government spending cuts. There are concerns about this.
“Right now they’re simply worried about whether they can make ends meet with the money they have,” said Isabel Borucki, a political science professor at Germany’s Philipp University of Marburg.
This change is visible across Europe. In Spain, many homeowners take out variable rate mortgages, which exposes them to higher interest rates. The Polish Credit Information Agency (BIK) said “uncertainty and tensions” were causing Poles to shift from spending to saving.
In a continent that remains at the top of the world’s quality of life rankings, three-quarters of Europeans think their standard of living will worsen, and a third 1 or more respondents said they were having difficulty paying their bills.
In particular, recent protests by European farmers against the EU’s green rules and free trade have resonated with some voters. Surveys show that while the majority of Europeans support action on climate change, many are also concerned about the cost.
reliability issues
How this restructures the 27-nation EU parliament will ultimately depend on other factors, including local politics and what alliances form after the vote.
Pollster Ipsos predicts that mainstream parties on the right and left will come out on top in 16 countries. But he also sees economic dissatisfaction as a contributing factor to the radical right’s growing momentum to control one-fifth of the seats in the EU parliament.
Matthew Garrard, account director at Ipsos, said: “It doesn’t explain the rise of right-wing populism, it’s just a contributing factor to it,” adding that rising costs of living already favor far-right xenophobia and populism. suggested that it stimulated voters. The identity agenda.
The same is true for France, where opinion polls show that Le Pen’s National Party (RN) is more than 14 points ahead of Macron’s Renaissance party, after a narrow margin in 2019.
Elsewhere, the far right’s lack of experience in managing the economy is seen as limiting its credibility and thus its appeal. In Germany, for example, local conservatives are confidently abandoning the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Giorgia Meloni’s Italian siblings will be in the spotlight. Since gaining national power in 2022, the organization has been boosting the economic well-being of Italians through state subsidies such as home renovation subsidies and heating subsidies.
The EU vote favors this policy, as many Italians turn a blind eye to the fact that new borrowing, the highest in the EU, will only increase Italy’s huge debt mountain. It is seen that there are.
Giorgio Delita of Italy’s socio-economic research institute Censis warned that the “return to reality” in state finances could be sudden, but added: “What Giorgia Meloni is telling voters at the moment is “is consistent with the emotional state of voters.”
(Additional reporting by Karol Badohar in Warsaw; Giselda Vagnoni in Rome; Belen Carreno in Madrid; Graphics by Kripa Jayaram; Writing by Mark John; Editing by Susan Fenton)